Dr. Probability…or how I came to love this week in the NFL

"Dr. Octogon had no answers!"

Three out the four wild card game matchups this coming weekend are rematches from last week. Let that sink in for a minute. Because unlike every MSM writer I’ve read this week, this is actually the purpose of this post, not just a quirky footnote. I can just imagine the Fox Sunday crew trying to talk about the anomaly that this is:

Curt: Guys, how do you feel about the insane improbability that has occurred this week, with three of the four wild-card games being rematches of week 17 matchups?

Terry: WHOOO YEAHH!! OOOH DOGGY! GIMME SOME OF THAT!!

Howie: Radio Shack.Chevy trucks.Radio Shack.Chevy trucks.vrooom go fast.

Strahan: I have a sitcom!

Jimmy: Well Curt, one time in 1993 Charles Haley mushroom-stamped the same rookie receiver in the locker room TWO STRAIGHT WEEKS IN A ROW!

Anyway, I think the blandness of these three games last week is what has led the MSM to kind of disregard exploring this oddity. The Bengals, with nothing to really gain by playing hard, played a “vanilla” game and kept their playbook closed while getting smoked by the Jets. Once the Vikings won in the early game, the Cards also had nothing left to gain so they called Matt Leinart away from whatever frat party he was at to play QB vs. the Pack, and the Cards got smoked as well. The Eagles/Cowboys game was actually quite entertaining, as they were playing for the division crown still, and thus playing for a wild card home game.

The sheer improbability of this happening is what truly blows my mind. Lets say you are an NFL team, the Jets maybe (because the name is short and I’m lazy). There’s 31 other teams in the league, so obviously you’ll play 1/31 in week 17. Then there is the fact that you are a playoff team also, which only 12/32 are each year (37.5%). Then there’s the fact that this same scenario is also applicable to the other team as well, in this case the Bengals. This happened to SIX teams this year, or again, three games.

The odds of this happening the way it did this year is ~eleventy billion to 1. I may have to check my math though.

Since 1990 (when the playoff format changed to it’s current system), a wild-card game featuring a week 17 rematch has happened 9 times TOTAL. So once every two years. To have three happen in the same season is quite crazy.

Now the NFL scheduling does try to encourage storylines like this to happen. They fail the majority of the time, though, because of the tremendous amount of parity in the league, the season by season fluctuation of playoff teams that is unrivaled by the other professional leagues. Here’s last season’s playoff teams, with teams in bold being teams who have returned to the playoffs this year:

2008: NY Giants, Carolina, Minnesota, Arizona, Atlanta, Philadelphia, Tennessee, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, San Diego, Miami, Baltimore.

Half are repeat playoff teams, a number thats actually quite the par for the NFL. Now look back to last Sunday again and the matchups. Minnesota/NY Giants, Pittsburgh/Miami…there’s a couple out-of-division matchups the league saved for week 17 in hopes of creating drama. Of course neither of those did matter, but yet three others did.

Out of Nowhere…an NFL Playoffs Preview!

ya ya, so there’s one more week left…who cares.  so ya…its the great NFC vs. the average AFC.   Of course now that I say this, it’ll wind up being Dallas vs. Jacksonville somehow in the superbowl.  Well fuck that.   Here’s the real picks.

NFC:  6 of the top 8 teams (arguably) reside in this conference, and the playoff games should be great matchups.  I’m predicting that the team with the least amount of press coverage makes it to the Super Bowl.  Somehow, that would be the defending NFC champs, the Arizona Cardinals.  A solid, old QB who isn’t named Favre, 2 great receivers, and a decent D should propel them past the wannabees in the conference.  Or maybe It’ll be the Eagles….or Vikings or Saints or Packers or Cowboys.  I dunno.

AFC:   Fuck this conference sucks this year.  What an odd change of events.  If the Steelers somehow make the playoffs, then I’m picking them.  Ha!  In reality, who is going to beat the Chargers now?  The Colts and their quasi-undefeated state?  The….whothefuckelseisintheplayoffshere?

SUPER BOWL:

“Point to the stars and you get a free ref handjob!”

Somehow that fuckhead southerner wins it all. Even though i said the Cards for the NFC earlier, I’m gonna flip the script here, cause I’m cool like that.

Super Bowl Superlicious predicition….. Chargers 34 Eagles 27

Week 7 rants (so far)

SUCK IT to the refs in the Pit-Min game.  Was this the same crew from the Pit-Sea super bowl?  This tripping call which negated a fourth quarter, go-ahead touchdown for the Vikings was complete bullshit.

watch here

…and SUCK IT to youtube users who disable embedding.  Fuckers.  Die.

SUCK IT to the, oh, about 8 teams who have already quit trying this season.  The majority of the day games blew harder than Brady Quinn at a bathhouse.  Let’s lump 5 of the games together:

Green Bay, Indy, New York Jets, New England, and San Diego

vs

Cleveland, St. Louis, Oakland, Tampa, and Kansas City

overall combined score?

183-23

That must be some sort of suckitude record for a week.  Thanks for forcing half of the country to be subjected to at least one of those games on TV.

SUCK IT to “Old England”.  In the NFL’s yearly field trip to London, New England smoked Tampa 35-7.  Yup, the Patriots whooped the English Glazer family-owned team of Buccaneers.  So suck it to English pirates.  By the way, could there be anyone else in the world with a worse dental history than an English pirate?  Just asking.

SUCK IT to the Sulkasaur Jay Cutler.  Chicago was embarrassed by the Bengals to the tune of 45-10.  Good job whining your way out of Denver, loser.  The Broncos are sitting pretty at 6-0, and your new team is 3-3.  Hey, at least its a .500 record, right?  Better than you ever did in college, fucktard.

Do they have cupcakes in Heaven?

Last we left our drunken football author Mike Lombardi, he was telling all about vertical field position and that Randy Moss is a good receiver.  What nuggets of wisdom does he have for us in this weeks Tavern Talk? Let’s find out!

I can’t imagine the pain that the Mike Zimmer family has gone through since last Thursday. One day Vikki Zimmer is alive and deciding what to bake for the team; the next day, she’s gone.

Nice eulogy.  Was she a housewife from the 1850′s?

“She loved to bake, do the team laundry, and clean.”

Clearly, Vikki was watching over her Bengals on Sunday.

First things to do in Heaven:

1. Watch the Bengals

2. Bake

2. The Bengals can get their run game going now that they play solid defense and not have to worry that every time they punt they get further and further behind. They’re fast and athletic on defense.

BUT WHO WILL BAKE FOR THEM!

4. Broncos running back Knowshon Moreno is tough to tackle, and he made more yards after contact Sunday. He was huge running the wildcat and opening up lanes. With the spread attack, it made it much easier for Kyle Orton to make easy throws. Orton had 35 completions, and over half of them were hitches. He was very accurate and precise with the football.

Alright, alright.  The Broncos played well on offense, spreading the ball around and basically being efficient in their overtime win against the Patriots.

5. Vince Wilfork looks like he’s doing his best Ted Washington impersonation in terms of weight, but he was unblockable against the Broncos.

What the fuck?  You just wrote about how well the Broncos offense was, and even made reference to Orton’s 35 completions.  Obviously Wilfork was very blockable on at least 35 of the plays in the game.

7. The ‘Skins are playing with some backup linemen on their offensive line, but why does that surprise anyone? When your line is old, injuries will happen. This ‘Skins offense is never going to get better until they fix their offensive line.

FIX YOUR OLD AGE REDSKIN LINEMAN!

9. The Bills need to get a grading system in place that can bring bigger defensive players to Buffalo and not have all these little players who get hurt so easily.

I know of one such system that’s been around for awhile.  It’s called height and weight measurements.  Somebody get Buffalo on the line!

14. Older running backs are not able to spring back into shape. Seattle’s Edgerrin James appears to have no burst or acceleration in his lower body

FIX YOUR OLD AGE EDGE!

17. The return of right offensive tackle Mark Tauscher to the Packers is much needed, assuming he’s healthy. Tauscher knows how to play despite his lack of talent. He finds a way to get things done.

I know how to play football.  I don’t play in the NFL because of a lack of talent.

/head explodes again

…but can he slam a beer in 3 seconds? I THINK NOT!

This may be the best goal I’ve ever seen anyone score, and this not the NHL.  It’s a 9-year old kid playing a shootout in a period break at a Boston Bruins game.

9!!!  I’m 28 and can barely tie my shoes without falling down.

Can he be traded to a reality show?

It appears that Mangina and the rest of the Cleveland Browns front office have decided they only need one horribly below average quarterback on the roster. Rumors abound that Brady Quinn may be on the trade cock block.

That's not how you take a snap

No clear front-runner has stepped up for his services as of yet.  My pick on where he winds up?

RAWR!

Baseball Playoffs in full sw…..zZzZZzz…

Well whattya know, the final four teams left from this season (Yankees, Angels, Phillies, Dodgers) were ranked numbers #1, #6, #7, and #9 in opening season payroll.  All of those teams also added payroll as the season went on.  The average Yankee players salary was one-fifth of the total team payroll of the Marlins.

MLB bigwigs spent much of the nineties trying to figure out why the NFL had clearly passed up “America’s pastime” in popularity.  To quote Carville, “It’s the economy, stupid”.  The deepening chasm between the haves and have nots has almost eliminated the fan spirit in 80% of the baseball watching country.  Meanwhile, fans in every NFL city have hope every season that their team can go all the way.  Okay, maybe not Detroit…but you get the picture.

Look at last weeks cable TV Nielson ratings:
click here because stupid chart won’t copy and paste

Now, granted, it was a hyped MNF game (favrefavrefavrefavre).  Nonetheless, 22 MILLION people watched that regular season NFL game.  The #2, #3, #4 on the list were playoff baseball games, and their viewer numbers COMBINED don’t exceed 22 million.  Fucking wrestling did better numbers than a couple of MLB’s playoff games.

I may prefer watching wrestling right now as opposed to the rest of the playoffs also.  Picking one of the remaining teams to cheer for would be like picking whether I want to be run over by a Ford or a Chevy.  At least last season Tampa made an improbable run to give all of us not located in New York, Boston, Philly, LA, or Chicago a small-market team to cheer for.

For now I’ll be in front of the TV like this:

Wake me when it’s Sunday….